Biodivers Conserv (2009) 18:1329–1347
DOI 10.1007/s10531-008-9541-y
1 C
ORIGINAL PAPER
Scenario-based assessment of future land use change
on butterXy species distributions
Michael Lütolf · Janine Bolliger · Felix Kienast ·
Antoine Guisan
Received: 10 April 2008 / Accepted: 17 November 2008 / Published online: 6 December 2008
© Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008
Abstract Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to predict environ-
mentally induced range shifts of habitats of plant and animal species. Consequently SDMs
are valuable tools for scientiWcally based conservation decisions. The aims of this paper are
(1) to identify important drivers of butterXy species persistence or extinction, and (2) to
analyse the responses of endangered butterXy species of dry grasslands and wetlands to
likely future landscape changes in Switzerland. Future land use was represented by four
scenarios describing: (1) ongoing land use changes as observed at the end of the last cen-
tury; (2) a liberalisation of the agricultural markets; (3) a slightly lowered agricultural pro-
duction; and (4) a strongly lowered agricultural production. Two model approaches have
been applied. The Wrst (logistic regression with principal components) explains what envi-
ronmental variables have signiWcant impact on species presence (and absence). The second
(predictive SDM) is used to project species distribution under current and likely future land
uses. The results of the explanatory analyses reveal that four principal components related
to urbanisation, abandonment of open land and intensive agricultural practices as well as
two climate parameters are primary drivers of species occurrence (decline). The scenario
analyses show that lowered agricultural production is likely to favour dry grassland species
due to an increase of non-intensively used land, open canopy forests, and overgrown areas.
In the liberalisation scenario dry grassland species show a decrease in abundance due to a
strong increase of forested patches. Wetland butterXy species would decrease under all four
scenarios as their habitats become overgrown.
Keywords Agricultural change · Explanatory model · GLM · PCA · Predictive model ·
Scenario · Species distribution model (SDM)
M. Lütolf · J. Bolliger · F. Kienast (&)
Swiss Federal Research Institute WSL, Zuercherstrasse 111, CH-8903 Birmensdorf, Switzerland
e-mail: felix.kienast@wsl.ch
M. Lütolf
e-mail: michael.luetolf@ksbg.ch
M. Lütolf · A. Guisan
Department of Ecology and Evolution, University of Lausanne, CH-1015 Lausanne, Switzerland