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Probabilities in climate policy advice: a critical comment

Probabilities in climate policy advice: a critical comment This essay explores as to whether probabilistic climate forecasting is consistent with the prerequisites of democratic scientific policy advice. It argues that, given the boundaries of our current knowledge, it is highly problematic to assign exact, unconditional probabilities to possible values of climate sensitivity. The range of possible–instead of probable–future climate scenarios is what climate policy should be based on. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Climatic Change Springer Journals

Probabilities in climate policy advice: a critical comment

Climatic Change , Volume 85 (2) – Aug 8, 2007

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References (17)

Publisher
Springer Journals
Copyright
Copyright © 2007 by Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
Subject
Earth Sciences; Atmospheric Sciences; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts
ISSN
0165-0009
eISSN
1573-1480
DOI
10.1007/s10584-007-9313-9
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

This essay explores as to whether probabilistic climate forecasting is consistent with the prerequisites of democratic scientific policy advice. It argues that, given the boundaries of our current knowledge, it is highly problematic to assign exact, unconditional probabilities to possible values of climate sensitivity. The range of possible–instead of probable–future climate scenarios is what climate policy should be based on.

Journal

Climatic ChangeSpringer Journals

Published: Aug 8, 2007

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