CLIMATE WARMING AND WATER MANAGEMENT ADAPTATION
FOR CALIFORNIA
STACY K. TANAKA, TINGJU ZHU, JAY R. LUND, RICHARD E. HOWITT,
MARION W. JENKINS, MANUEL A. PULIDO, M
´
ELANIE TAUBER, RANDALL S.
RITZEMA and IN
ˆ
ES C. FERREIRA
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Department of Agricultural and Resource
Economics, University of California, Davis 95616
E-mail: jrlund@ucdavis.edu
Abstract. The ability of California’s water supply system to adapt to long-term climatic and demo-
graphic changes is examined. Two climate warming and a historical climate scenario are examined
with population and land use estimates for the year 2100 using a statewide economic-engineering op-
timization model of water supply management. Methodologically, the results of this analysis indicate
that for long-term climate change studies of complex systems, there is considerable value in including
other major changes expected during a long-term time-frame (such as population changes), allowing
the system to adapt to changes in conditions (a common feature of human societies), and representing
the system in sufficient hydrologic and operational detail and breadth to allow significant adaptation.
While the policy results of this study are preliminary, they point to a considerable engineering and
economic ability of complex, diverse, and inter-tied systems to adapt to significant changes in climate
and population. More specifically, California’s water supply system appears physically capable of
adapting to significant changes in climate and population, albeit at a significant cost. Such adapta-
tion would entail large changes in the operation of California’s large groundwater storage capacity,
significant transfers of water among water users, and some adoption of new technologies.
1. Introduction
In Hades, the mythical Tantalus was burdened by a great thirst, only to have the water
rise to his neck threatening to drown him, but then recede when he tried to drink. At
the same time, ever present above him was a large rock, ready to crush his head at
some uncertain time. Like Tantalus, California’s water managers are tantalized by
the prospects of quenching California’s thirsts, but constantly contend with floods
and droughts, while living in a world of such grave prospects as earthquakes, energy
and budget crises, population growth, and climatic change.
In California, concern for climate change has increased in recent years with
research on global climate change applied to California and studies of how
California’s climate has changed recently (Dettinger and Cayan, 1995; Gleick and
Chalecki, 1999; NRC, 1999) and in recent millennia (Stine, 1994, 1996; Haston
and Michaelson, 1997; Meko et al., 2001). Several decades of studies have shown
that California’s climate is variable over history and in the present (Cayan et al.,
1999), is experiencing continuing sea level rise, and may experience significant
climate warming (Gleick, 1987; Roos, 1987; Lettenmaier and Gan, 1990; Snyder
Climatic Change (2006) 76: 361–387
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-006-9079-5
c
Springer 2006