Summary and Appraisal
Abstract
Summary and Appraisal SAGE Publications, Inc.1973DOI: 10.1177/002795017306300101 The home economy The latest indicators suggest that the economy has begun to pick up quite strongly. Between the first and second halves of last year we estimate that total output rose by around 3~ per cent, though this comparison is affected by the effects of the miners' strike. Unemployment has continued to fall fast. As usual, our forecast calculations are based on our interpretation of 'present policies', which for convenience include an exchange rate of £1=$2.35 with other currencies at their end-1972 parities. The prices and incomes policy is assumed to be 'successful'. On this basis, we foresee continued growth: between the second half of last year and the first half of next we expect output to grow at an average annual rate of 5 per cent. There is still some doubt about the exact base from which this begins however, because of large discrepancies between the three estimates of GDP last year. All components of demand contribute to our buoyant forecast: the biggest (and only important) change from our previous calculations is the rise now expected in total public expenditure in the light of the latest White Paper. Again