Projecting the Number of Professional Nurses Required for In-Hospital, Direct Care of Older People, 1970-2050
Abstract
Western Journal of Nursing Research, 1986, 8(3), 343-349 Projecting the Number of Professional Nurses Required for In-Hospital, Direct Care of Older People, 1970-20501 Deborah Oakley Old people are more likely to be hospitalized and require higher intensity nursing care. As the baby boom generation ages, both the numbers and the proportions of older people will increase. The need for hospital-based RNs with gerontological expertise will grow substan- tially, but no figures have yet been produced at either national or local levels to estimate the number of nurses with the gerontological expertise needed in various service settings. The one available estimate places nurses in a category with physicians' assistants and uses a model based on physician delegation (Kane, Solomon, Beck, Keeler, & Kane, 1980). The study reported here quantifies the impact on nursing personnel needs of the changing age structure when combined with older people's greater use of nursing care. The model used in the calculations can be used for regional, state, or local educational planning, grant propsals, and institutional personnel projections to establish requirements for care of the elderly. Although data are occasionally available in more detail, national statistical sources categorizing people by age generally show a single