Chapter II. The Home Economy Forecast
Abstract
Chapter II. The Home Economy Forecast SAGE Publications, Inc.1973DOI: 10.1177/002795017306300103 Chart 1. The three measures of GDP Index numbers, 1970 = 100 .. Source: Economic Trends. ' Recent developments : demand and output Three months ago we drew attention to the difficulty of interpreting the current economic indicators. Since then the situation has, if anything, become worse. The underlying trends in the economy would in any case have remained obscure because of the distortions caused by strikes('), but in addition, the discrepancy between the three estimates of GDP became even greater in the third quarter of 1972 (chart 1). The change in output then as compared with a year earlier is given variously as minus 1, plus 2~ or plus 3 i per cent, by the expenditure, income and output estimates respectively. For the most part then, we can only draw rather imprecise conclusions about the recent past---except with regard to one indicator, unemployment. This has continued to fall rapidly (on a seasonally adjusted basis) and by January 1973, was about 175,000 below the peak ten months earlier. The average monthly fall has been (at 17,500) only slightly less than the rate of rise during 1971 and early