At a glance ... The UK economy
AbstractAt a glance ... The UK economy SAGE Publications, Inc.1999DOI: 10.1177/002795019916800101 The UK will grow by 1.25 per cent in 1999. 0 The economy will operate at two speeds with manufacturing output declining by almost 2 per cent. 0 RPIX inflation will fall to 1.8 per cent by the final quarter but will edge above the government's target by the end of 2000. 0 There is now little scope for further reductions in interest rates this year. 0 Current policies are likely to lead to entry into EMU at an uncompetitive rate. We have raised our forecast for GDP growth by a quarter point. This reflects the recovery in confidence that has brought business surveys more closely into line with our projection of a soft landing in 1999. By the end of the year we expect national output to be almost 2 per cent higher than at the end of 1998. The probability of a recession, with GDP ending the year no higher, is less than a fifth. However, the economic fortunes of the services and manufacturing sectors will be sharply polarised. Services will be buoyed by an expansion of domestic demand of just over 2 per cent.