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Econometric modelling in the presence of evolutionary change

Cambridge Journal Of Economics , Volume 23 (6) – Nov 1, 1999

Details

Publisher
Oxford University Press
Copyright
Copyright © 1999 Oxford University Press
ISSN
0309-166X
eISSN
1464-3545
D.O.I.
10.1093/cje/23.6.749
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

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Econometric modelling in the presence of evolutionary change

Abstract

A methodology is offered which can be used to construct an econometric model in the presence of structural change of an evolutionary type. The theoretical basis for such modelling is drawn from the self-organisation approach and operationalised in the context of the logistic diffusion growth model. The latter is augmented to allow for the impact of exogenous effects upon both the diffusion rate and boundary limit. We show how the hypothesis of augmented logistic diffusion can be falsified using econometric methods. An illustrative case study is used, namely the growth and decline of Australian Building Society Deposits. With the aid of this example, it is shown how the approach could be of use to both economic forecasters and regulators in conditions of structural change where conventional econometric methods are often inappropriate.
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