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WHEN AND HOW THE FIGHTING STOPS: EXPLAINING THE DURATION AND OUTCOME OF CIVIL WARS

Defence and Peace Economics , Volume 19 (6): 415-434 – Dec 1, 2008

Details

Publisher
Routledge
Copyright
© 2008 Informa plc
Subject
Civil war
ISSN
1024-2694
D.O.I.
10.1080/10242690701823267
Publisher site
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WHEN AND HOW THE FIGHTING STOPS: EXPLAINING THE DURATION AND OUTCOME OF CIVIL WARS

Abstract

Previous research has shown that the duration of a civil war is in part a function of how it ends: in government victory, rebel victory, or negotiated settlement. We present a model of how protagonists in a civil war choose to stop fighting. Hypotheses derived from this theory relate the duration of a civil war to its outcome as well as characteristics of the civil war and the civil war nation. Findings from a competing risk model reveal that the effects of predictors on duration vary according to whether the conflict ended in government victory, rebel victory, or negotiated settlement.
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