Agricultural
and
Forest
Meteorology
151 (2011) 1193–
1201
Contents
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at
ScienceDirect
Agricultural
and
Forest
Meteorology
jou
rn
al
h
om
epa
g
e:
www.elsevier.com/locate/agrformet
Global
warming
over
the
period
1961–2008
did
not
increase
high-temperature
stress
but
did
reduce
low-temperature
stress
in
irrigated
rice
across
China
Wen
Sun
a
,
Yao
Huang
a,b,∗
a
College
of
Resources
and
Environmental
Sciences,
Nanjing
Agricultural
University,
Nanjing
210095,
China
b
LAPC,
Institute
of
Atmospheric
Physics,
Chinese
Academy
of
Sciences,
Beijing
100029,
China
a
r
t
i
c
l
e
i
n
f
o
Article
history:
Received
17
December
2010
Received
in
revised
form
5
April
2011
Accepted
12
April
2011
Keywords:
Global
warming
Extreme
temperature
Rice
production
China
a
b
s
t
r
a
c
t
Climate
change
is
recognized
to
increase
the
frequency
and
severity
of
extreme
temperature
events
that
lead
to
declining
crop
yield,
but
this
impact
has
not
been
well
evaluated
in
China.
We
examined
the
changes
in
extreme
temperature
stress
over
the
past
five
decades
by
quantifying
the
indices
of
tem-
perature
stress
(TSI)
during
different
growth
stages
of
irrigated
rice
across
mainland
China.
Our
results
suggest
that
the
indices
of
low-
or
high-temperature
stress
can
be
used
to
explain
the
year-to-year
changes
in
rice
yield.
Analysis
using
the
TSI
indicated
that
low-temperature
stress
(LTS)
in
the
seedling
and
heading-flowering
stages
of
single
rice
in
northeast
China,
the
seedling
stage
of
early
rice
and
the
heading-flowering
stage
of
late
rice
in
the
double
rice
regions
has
reduced
over
the
period
of
1961–2008.
No
significant
trends
in
LTS
were
detected
during
the
booting
stage.
Moreover,
global
warming
did
not
enhance
high-temperature
stress
(HTS)
in
the
heading-flowering
stage
over
the
same
period,
except
in
early
rice
in
the
mid-lower
Yangtze
River
Valley
where
the
HTS
in
the
2000s
was
higher
than
in
previous
decades.
© 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
1.
Introduction
Rice
(Oryza
sativa
L.)
is
the
most
important
food
in
the
diets
of
Asians,
Africans
and
Latin
Americans;
in
fact,
it
serves
as
a
basic
staple
for
more
than
half
of
the
world’s
population
(Yoshida,
1981;
Peng
et
al.,
1995).
China
has
the
second
largest
area
of
rice
cultiva-
tion
and
the
highest
rice
production,
contributing
∼19%
and
∼29%
of
the
world
rice
area
and
rice
production
(FAO,
2010),
respectively,
as
well
as
more
than
40%
of
the
national
cereals
yields
of
China
(National
Bureau
of
Statistics
of
China,
2009).
China
has
experienced
significant
global
warming
over
the
last
five
decades.
The
annual
mean
air
temperature
has
increased
by
1.2
◦
C
since
1960
(Piao
et
al.,
2010).
Northern
China
is
warming
faster
than
southern
China,
particularly
since
the
1980s
(Editorial
Board
of
China’s
National
Assessment
of
Report
on
Climate
Change,
2007;
Piao
et
al.,
2010).
Climate
change
is
recognized
to
affect
rice
production
(Peng
et
al.,
2004;
Easterling
et
al.,
2007;
Jagadish
et
al.,
2007;
Tao
et
al.,
2008a).
Temperature
is
a
principal
factor
affect-
ing
rice
growth,
development
and
grain
yield
production.
Warming
tends
to
shift
rice
phenology
(Lu
et
al.,
2008)
and
to
extend
the
length
of
the
growing
season,
allowing
for
earlier
planting
and
later
∗
Corresponding
author
at:
College
of
Resources
and
Environmental
Sciences,
Nanjing
Agricultural
University,
Nanjing
210095,
China.
Tel.:
+86
25
84396406;
fax:
+86
25
84396286.
E-mail
addresses:
huangy@njau.edu.cn,
huangy@mail.iap.ac.cn
(Y.
Huang).
harvesting
(Huang
et
al.,
2007).
In
Heilongjiang
Province,
the
north-
ernmost
region
of
China,
rice
planting
area
increased
from
0.22
Mha
in
the
early
1980s
to
2.39
Mha
in
2008
(National
Bureau
of
Statistics
of
China,
2009).
Nighttime
warming
has
been
reported
to
increase
rice
yield
in
a
temperate
climate
(Tao
et
al.,
2008b)
but
to
decrease
rice
yield
in
a
tropical
climate
(Peng
et
al.,
2004).
Extreme
temperatures
are
destructive
to
rice
growth
and,
hence,
critical
to
development
of
rice
productivity
(Yoshida,
1981;
Farrell
et
al.,
2001).
Seedling,
booting
and
heading-flowering
are
key
growth
stages
crucial
to
rice
yield
and
productivity,
and
they
are
the
most
vulnerable
periods
to
extreme
temperatures
throughout
the
life
cycle
of
rice
plants
(Nishiyama,
1976;
Wang
et
al.,
2009).
Low
temperatures
limit
seed
germination
and
seedling
establishment
(Nishiyama,
1976;
Yoshida,
1981).
Booting
and
heading-flowering
stages
are
considered
the
most
sensitive
stages
to
low
temperature
(Yoshida,
1981;
Mamun
et
al.,
2006),
leading
to
panicle
tip
degener-
ation,
incomplete
panicle
exertion,
delayed
flowering,
high
spikelet
sterility
and
irregular
maturity
(Yoshida,
1981;
Gunawardena
et
al.,
2003;
Imai
et
al.,
2005;
Shimono
et
al.,
2005,
2007).
High
tem-
peratures
in
the
heading-flowering
stage
affect
pollen
formation
and
development,
damage
insemination
and
cause
spikelet
steril-
ity
(Yoshida,
1981;
Matsui
et
al.,
1997,
2001),
especially
in
tropical
areas
where
the
temperatures
are
already
near
or
above
the
opti-
mum
range
for
rice
(Peng
et
al.,
1995).
Climate
change
is
recognized
to
increase
the
frequency
and
severity
of
extreme
temperature
events
that
lead
to
declining
crop
yields
(Rosenzweig
et
al.,
2001;
Porter,
2005;
Tubiello
et
al.,
2007).
0168-1923/$
–
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matter ©
2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.04.009