Estimation of waste generation from floods
Jenq-Renn Chen
*
, Hsiao-Yun Tsai, Ping-Chi Hsu, Chun-Cheng Shen
Department of Safety, Health and Environmental Engineering, National Kaohsiung First University of Science and Technology, 1 University Road,
Yenchau, Kaohsiung 824, Taiwan
Accepted 26 October 2006
Available online 12 December 2006
Abstract
A framework of correlation for estimating the amount of waste generation from floods is developed. Flood waste data were collected
from four recent typhoons in Taiwan. Parameters affecting the flood waste are analyzed. Population density, flooded area and amount of
total rainfall are chosen as the correlating parameters for the model development, and regression diagnostics are performed to check the
validity of the collected data. The simple linear model is shown to be incapable of correlating the flood waste data. An exponential model
is proposed and shown to give acceptable correlation with the flood waste data spanning five orders of magnitude. The model can be
useful in the planning of waste cleanup after floods.
Ó 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
1. Introduction
Taiwan is a subtropics island located in a region where
major tropic cyclones, commonly known as typhoons, have
occurred almost every year. These natural disasters have
endangered the communities and caused significant losses
in lives and properties. They have also generated significant
amounts of waste; mainly flood damaged household utili-
ties and furniture, building debris, green waste, etc., caus-
ing considerable cleanup and disposal challenges for local
public officials.
In September 2001, Typhoon Nari hit central and north-
ern Taiwan, pouring more than 1000 mm of rain and caus-
ing floods in many parts of Taiwan, including the
downtown Taipei City. The removal of the flood waste in
Taipei City took more than a month, caused significant
burden to the local waste removal workers and raised sig-
nificant pressure on the city officials. Eventually, more than
190,000 tons of waste were removed and disposed, in addi-
tion to the normal daily waste, in Taipei City alone. This
amount far exceeded the normal daily waste of 2000 tons
per day in Taipei City.
One possible reason that the removal work took such a
long time is the underestimation or lack of estimation of
the possible waste generation. Without knowing the poten-
tial amount of waste generation, city environmental offi-
cials cannot correctly request the resources for waste
collection and disposal. In fact, there appears to be no suit-
able way to estimate the amount of waste generation from
floods or other natural disasters. Existing disaster plans,
for example the Integrated Waste Management Disaster
Plan of the California Integrated Waste Management
Board (1997), calls for ‘‘best guess’’ based on the variables
below:
the type and severity of disaster;
location and extent of the damage;
building types and their age (residential, commercial,
etc.);
number of buildings affected; and
population affected.
It is, however, not a trivial task to estimate the amount
of waste generation. There is generally a lack of accurate
historical data on the amount of waste generated from each
0956-053X/$ - see front matter Ó 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.wasman.2006.10.015
*
Corresponding author. Tel.: +886 7 6011000x2313; fax: +886 7
6011061.
E-mail address: jrc@ccms.nkfust.edu.tw (J.-R. Chen).
www.elsevier.com/locate/wasman
Waste Management 27 (2007) 1717–1724