Energy Policy 33 (2005) 349–364
Brazilian energy policies side-effects on CO
2
emissions reduction
Alexandre Salem Szklo
a,
*, Roberto Schaeffer
a
, Marcio Edgar Schuller
a
, William Chandler
b
a
Energy Planning Program, COPPE, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, P.O. Box 68565, 21945-970 Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
b
Battelle Memorial Institute, Pacific Nortwest National Laboratory, 901 D St., S.W., Suite 900, Washington, DC 20024-2115, USA
Abstract
This study focuses on some of the programs and measures Brazil has undertaken over the past two or three decades in order to
mitigate economic or environmental problems, which have also had positive effects on the reduction of the country’s carbon dioxide
emissions. Results show that, in the year 2000 alone, some 11% in CO
2
emissions from energy use in Brazil have been reduced
compared to what would have been emitted that year had the actions reviewed here not been implemented in good time. As these
actions have not been motivated as a strategy to curb global climate change, if their benefits related to avoided carbon emissions are
not fully appraised in the near future, chances are that these policies may be discontinued. For instance, in the case of the business-
as-usual scenario drawn up by the Ministry of Mines and Energy in 2001, the discontinuity of the policies analyzed here would result
in CO
2
emissions 20% higher by 2020, compared to what would happen were these policies kept over the long term. Therefore, the
perspective presented here spotlights some of the hidden benefits of the programs and measures underway in the country, justifying
their continuation or even intensification.
r 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Brazil’s energy sector; CO
2
emissions; Energy policies
1. Introduction
Article 4.1 of the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) establishes
common obligations for all the Parties to the Conven-
tion, taking into account the common but differentiated
responsibilities of the countries and their specific
national and regional development priorities, objectives
and circumstances. The Climate Convention recognizes
that ‘‘the largest share of historical and current global
emissions of greenhouse gases has originated in devel-
oped countries, that per capita emissions in developing
countries are still relatively low and that the share of
global emissions originating in developing countries will
grow to meet their social and development needs’’
(UNFCCC, 1992).
Developing countries, in turn, committed themselves
under the Convention to formulate and implement
domestic programs comprising measures to mitigate
global climate change. This commitment is stated in
general terms and is not related to any specific target for
the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions.
Brazil, a country notorious for the historical high
share of renewable energy on its total energy supply (see
Fig. 1), even being a Non-Annex I party to the
Convention, and as such not having binding commit-
ments to it, has nevertheless implemented a series of
national measures over time, which have resulted in
even lower CO
2
emissions for a country which already
has extremely low CO
2
emissions by any standard (see
Table 1).
The rapid economic growth and industrialization
noted in the Brazilian economy during the past decades
has implied, on the other hand, in a growing reliance on
non-renewable fossil fuels and, as a consequence, in
increasing CO
2
emissions from energy use, which
reached 91 MtC/yr in the year 2000 (see Fig. 2).
1
Had
ARTICLE IN PRESS
*Corresponding author. Tel.: +55-2125628764; fax: +55-
2125628777.
E-mail address: szklo@ppe.ufrj.br (A.S. Szklo).
1
This figure is based on the application of the top-down
methodology for calculating greenhouse gases emissions as established
in Schechtman et al. (1998). The final value obtained depends on the
fraction of renewable fuelwood consumed, whose value is estimated for
the residential and industrial sectors and obtained from sectoral data
for charcoal making. For instance, in 2000, some 72% of the fuelwood
used by charcoal makers was from planted forests and not from
deforestation.
0301-4215/$ - see front matter r 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2003.08.005