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Strategies for containing an in uenza pandemic: the case of Italy Stefano Merler, Giuseppe Jurman, Cesare Furlanello ITC-irst Trento, Italy Email: {merler, jurman, furlan}@itc.it Caterina Rizzo , Antonino Bella, Marco Massari, Marta Luisa Cio degli Atti National Centre for Epidemiology, Surveillance and Health Promotion National Institute of Health Rome, Italy and Department of Pharmaco-Biology University of Bari Bari, Italy Email: {caterina.rizzo, antonino.bella, marco.massari, marta.cio }@iss.it Abstract In this paper we introduce an individual based model for simulating the spread of an emerging in uenza pandemic in Italy and testing the effectiveness of some containing strategies including vaccination, antiviral prophylaxis and quarantine measures to increase social distances. Our results show that while the probability of interrupting a large outbreak is negligible, a combination of the control measures can be effective in reducing the incidence of infection. In particular, in the worst case, an incidence reduction from about 50% to about 10% can be hopefully achieved. I. I NTRODUCTION Pandemic in uenza is often thought as a tornado, a sudden disaster that arrives with little warning and does it worst in a relatively short time. Only three of these calamities occurred in the twentieth century, however.
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Strategies for containing an influenza pandemic: the case of Italy
Merler, Stefano; Jurman, Giuseppe; Furlanello, Cesare; Rizzo, Caterina; Bella, Antonino; Massari, Marco; Atti, Marta Luisa Ciofi degli
Association for Computing Machinery — Dec 11, 2006
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