Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
C. Chatfield, P. Bloomfield (1977)
Fourier Analysis of Time Series: An IntroductionIEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, 7
El Niflo, F. Jin, J. Neelin, M. Ghil (1994)
El Ni�o on the Devil's Staircase: Annual Subharmonic Steps to ChaosScience, 264
A. Koutavas, J. Lynch‐Stieglitz, T. Marchitto, J. Sachs (2002)
El Niño-Like Pattern in Ice Age Tropical Pacific Sea Surface TemperatureScience, 297
C. Chatfield (1990)
The Analysis of Time Series: An Introduction
G. Meyers (1982)
Interannual Variation in Sea Level near Truk Island—A Bimodal Seasonal CycleJournal of Physical Oceanography, 12
Henderson (1916)
Note on graduation by adjusted average.Trans. Amer. Soc. Actuaries, 17
Cook (2000)
Tree-ring records of past ENSO variability and forcing.
Jianping Huang, G. North (1996)
Cyclic Spectral Analysis of Fluctuations in a GCM SimulationJournal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 53
G. Burgers, D. Stephenson (1999)
The “normality” of El NiñoGeophysical Research Letters, 26
D. Thomson (1995)
The Seasons, Global Temperature, and PrecessionScience, 268
R. Thompson (1999)
A time-series analysis of the changing seasonality of precipitation in the British Isles and neighbouring areasJournal of Hydrology, 224
E. Rasmusson, Xueliang Wang, C. Ropelewski (1990)
The biennial component of ENSO variabilityJournal of Marine Systems, 1
P. Franses (1996)
Periodicity and Stochastic Trends in Economic Time Series
J. Shiskin (1978)
Seasonal Adjustment of Sensitive Indicators
B. Kirtman, J. Shukla (2000)
Influence of the Indian summer monsoon on ENSOQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 126
E. Tziperman, Lewi Stone, M. Cane, Hans Jarosh (1994)
El Ni�o Chaos: Overlapping of Resonances Between the Seasonal Cycle and the Pacific Ocean-Atmosphere OscillatorScience, 264
E. Rasmusson, T. Carpenter (1982)
Variations in Tropical Sea Surface Temperature and Surface Wind Fields Associated with the Southern Oscillation/El NiñoMonthly Weather Review, 110
J. Lawrimore, M. Halpert, G. Bell, M. Menne, B. Lyon, R. Schnell, K. Gleason, D. Easterling, W. Thiaw, William Wrightand, R. Heim, D. Robinson, L. Alexander (2001)
Climate Assessment for 2000Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 82
S. Bograd, F. Schwing, R. Mendelssohn, Phaedra Green‐Jessen (2002)
On the changing seasonality over the North PacificGeophysical Research Letters, 29
D. Vimont, D. Battisti, A. Hirst (2002)
Pacific Interannual and Interdecadal Equatorial Variability in a 1000-Yr Simulation of the CSIRO Coupled General Circulation Model*Journal of Climate, 15
M. Chelliah, G. Bell (2004)
Tropical multidecadal and interannual climate variability in the NCEP-NCAR reanalysisJournal of Climate, 17
F. Jin, M. Ghil (1996)
El Nin˜o/Southern Oscillation and the annual cycle: subharmonic frequency-locking and aperiodicityPhysica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, 98
H. Diaz, V. Markgraf (2000)
El Nino and the Southern Oscillation: Multiscale Variability and Global and Regional Impacts
Z. An, S. Porter, J. Kutzbach, W. Xihao, Suming Wang, Xiao-dong Liu, Xiaoqiang Li, Weijian Zhou (2000)
Asynchronous Holocene optimum of the East Asian monsoonQuaternary Science Reviews, 19
1967: The X-11 variant of Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Programme
D. Findley, B. Monsell, W. Bell, M. Otto, Bor-Chung Chen (1998)
New Capabilities and Methods of the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal-Adjustment ProgramJournal of Business & Economic Statistics, 16
Xuri Yu, M. Mcphaden (1999)
Seasonal Variability in the Equatorial PacificJournal of Physical Oceanography, 29
K. Trenberth, T. Hoar (1996)
The 1990–1995 El Niño‐Southern Oscillation Event: Longest on RecordGeophysical Research Letters, 23
D. Findley, B. Monsell, H. Shulman, M. Pugh (1990)
Sliding-Spans Diagnostics for Seasonal and Related AdjustmentsJournal of the American Statistical Association, 85
Bin Wang (1995)
Interdecadal changes in El Niño onset in the last four decadesJournal of Climate, 8
B. Sutradhar, E. Dagum (1998)
Bartlett‐type modified test for moving seasonality with applicationsThe Statistician, 47
E. Cook, R. D’Arrigo, J. Cole, D. Stahle, R. Villalba (2000)
El Niño and the Southern Oscillation: Tree-Ring Records of Past ENSO Variability and Forcing
Findley (1998)
New capabilities and methods of the X-11-ARIMA seasonal adjustment programme (with discussion).J. Bus. Econ. Stat., 16
Cressie (1991)
Statistics for Spatial Data.
E. Lorenz (1963)
Deterministic nonperiodic flowJournal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 20
P. Whitfield, K. Bodtker, Alex Cannon (2002)
Recent variations in seasonality of temperature and precipitation in Canada, 1976–95International Journal of Climatology, 22
E. Dagum (1978)
Modelling, Forecasting and Seasonally Adjusting Economic Time Series with the X-11 ARIMA MethodThe Statistician, 27
A. Hannachi, D. Stephenson, K. Sperber (2003)
Probability-based methods for quantifying nonlinearity in the ENSOClimate Dynamics, 22
P. Chang, L. Ji, Bin Wang, Tim Li (1995)
Interactions between the Seasonal Cycle and El Niño-Southern Oscillation in an Intermediate Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere ModelJournal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 52
H. Loon, R. Jenne (1970)
On the half-yearly oscillations in the tropicsTellus A, 22
D. Gu, S. Philander (1995)
Secular Changes of Annual and Interannual Variability in the Tropics during the Past CenturyJournal of Climate, 8
R. Lund, H. Hurd, P. Bloomfield, Richard Smith (1995)
Climatological time series with periodic correlationJournal of Climate, 8
H. Loon, J. Kidson, A. Mullan (1993)
Decadal Variation of the Annual Cycle in the Australian DatasetJournal of Climate, 6
(1975)
An F-test for the presence of moving seasonality when using Census Method II X-11 variant. Research paper
Philippe Besse, H. Cardot, D. Stephenson (2000)
Autoregressive Forecasting of Some Functional Climatic VariationsScandinavian Journal of Statistics, 27
Ninglin Jiang, J. Neelin, M. Ghil (1995)
Quasi-quadrennial and quasi-biennial variability in the equatorial PacificClimate Dynamics, 12
D. Gu, S. Philander, M. Mcphaden (1997)
The Seasonal Cycle and Its Modulation in the Eastern Tropical Pacific OceanJournal of Physical Oceanography, 27
R. Thompson (1995)
Complex demodulation and the estimation of the changing continentality of Europe's climateInternational Journal of Climatology, 15
H. Fuenzalida, B. Rosenblüth (1986)
Distortion Effects of the Anomaly Method of Removing Seasonal or Diurnal Variations from Climatological Time SeriesJournal of Applied Meteorology, 25
(1916)
1916: Note on graduation by adjusted average
A. Clement, R. Seager, M. Cane (1999)
Orbital controls on the El Niño/Southern Oscillation and the tropical climatePaleoceanography, 14
K. Trenberth (1997)
The Definition of El Niño.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 78
Hannachi (2003)
Probability-based methods for quantifying nonlinearity in the ENSO.Climate Dyn., 20
S. Rutherford, S. D’Hondt (2000)
Early onset and tropical forcing of 100,000-year Pleistocene glacial cyclesNature, 408
Seasons are the complex nonlinear response of the physical climate system to regular annual solar forcing. There is no a priori reason why they should remain fixed/invariant from year to year, as is often assumed in climate studies when extracting the seasonal component. The widely used econometric variant of Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment Program (X-11), which allows for year-to-year variations in seasonal shape, is shown here to have some advantages for diagnosing climate variability. The X-11 procedure is applied to the monthly mean Niño-3.4 sea surface temperature (SST) index and global gridded NCEP–NCAR reanalyses of 2-m surface air temperature. The resulting seasonal component shows statistically significant interannual variations over many parts of the globe. By taking these variations in seasonality into account, it is shown that one can define less ambiguous ENSO indices. Furthermore, using the X-11 seasonal adjustment approach, it is shown that the three cold ENSO episodes after 1998 are due to an increase in amplitude of seasonality rather than being three distinct La Niña events. Globally, variations in the seasonal component represent a substantial fraction of the year-to-year variability in monthly mean temperatures. In addition, strong teleconnections can be discerned between the magnitude of seasonal variations across the globe. It might be possible to exploit such relationships to improve the skill of seasonal climate forecasts.
Journal of Climate – American Meteorological Society
Published: Aug 15, 2003
Read and print from thousands of top scholarly journals.
Already have an account? Log in
Bookmark this article. You can see your Bookmarks on your DeepDyve Library.
To save an article, log in first, or sign up for a DeepDyve account if you don’t already have one.
Copy and paste the desired citation format or use the link below to download a file formatted for EndNote
Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
All DeepDyve websites use cookies to improve your online experience. They were placed on your computer when you launched this website. You can change your cookie settings through your browser.