Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
I. Held, S. Lyons, S. Nigam (1989)
Transients and the Extratropical Response to El NiñoJournal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 46
Bin Wang, Q. Bao, B. Hoskins, Guoxiong Wu, Yimin Liu (2008)
Tibetan Plateau warming and precipitation changes in East AsiaGeophysical Research Letters, 35
J. Charney, J. Shukla (1981)
Monsoon dynamics: Predictability of monsoons
M. Clark, M. Serreze (2000)
Effects of variations in east Asian snow cover on modulating atmospheric circulation over the North Pacific OceanJournal of Climate, 13
Xiaojing Jia, Hai Lin, J. Derome (2010)
Improving Seasonal Forecast Skill of North American Surface Air Temperature in Fall Using a Postprocessing MethodMonthly Weather Review, 138
M. Ting, M. Hoerling, Taiyi Xu, Arun Kumar (1996)
Northern hemisphere teleconnection patterns during extreme phases of the zonal-mean circulationJournal of Climate, 9
D. Robinson, K. Dewey, R. Heim (1993)
Global Snow Cover Monitoring: An UpdateBulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 74
G. North, T. Bell, Robert Cahalan, F. Moeng (1982)
Sampling Errors in the Estimation of Empirical Orthogonal FunctionsMonthly Weather Review, 110
Zhiwei Wu, Jianping Li, Zhihong Jiang, Jinhai He (2011)
Predictable climate dynamics of abnormal East Asian winter monsoon: once-in-a-century snowstorms in 2007/2008 winterClimate Dynamics, 37
E. Lorenz (1963)
Deterministic nonperiodic flowJournal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 20
G. Gong, J. Cohen, D. Entekhabi, Yan Ge (2007)
Hemispheric-scale climate response to Northern Eurasia land surface characteristics and snow anomaliesGlobal and Planetary Change, 56
C. Fletcher, S. Hardiman, P. Kushner, J. Cohen (2008)
The dynamical response to snow cover perturbations in a large ensemble of atmospheric GCM integrations.Journal of Climate, 22
C. Ropelewski, M. Halpert (1986)
North American Precipitation and Temperature Patterns Associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)Monthly Weather Review, 114
R. Livezey, Wilbur Chen (1983)
Statistical Field Significance and its Determination by Monte Carlo TechniquesMonthly Weather Review, 111
(1981)
Predictability of monsoons. Monsoon Dynamics
S. Sobolowski, G. Gong, M. Ting (2010)
Modeled Climate State and Dynamic Responses to Anomalous North American Snow CoverJournal of Climate, 23
G. Gong, D. Entekhabi, J. Cohen (2003)
Relative impacts of Siberian and North American snow anomalies on the winter Arctic OscillationGeophysical Research Letters, 30
J. Côté, S. Gravel, A. Méthot, A. Patoine, M. Roch, A. Staniforth (1998)
The Operational CMC–MRB Global Environmental Multiscale (GEM) Model. Part I: Design Considerations and FormulationMonthly Weather Review, 126
Bin Wang, Zhiwei Wu, Chih-Pei Chang, Jian Liu, Jianping Li, Tianjun Zhou (2010)
Another Look at Interannual-to-Interdecadal Variations of the East Asian Winter Monsoon: The Northern and Southern Temperature ModesJournal of Climate, 23
J. Shaman, E. Tziperman (2005)
The Effect of ENSO on Tibetan Plateau Snow Depth: A Stationary Wave Teleconnection Mechanism and Implications for the South Asian MonsoonsJournal of Climate, 18
S. Uppala, P. Kållberg, A. Simmons, U. Andrae, V. Bechtold, M. Fiorino, J. Gibson, J. Haseler, A. Hernandez, G. Kelly, Xiao‐Ming Li, K. Onogi, S. Saarinen, N. Sokka, R. Allan, E. Andersson, K. Arpe, M. Balmaseda, A. Beljaars, L. Berg, J. Bidlot, N. Bormann, S. Caires, F. Chevallier, A. Dethof, M. Dragosavac, M. Fisher, M. Fuentes, S. Hagemann, E. Holm, B. Hoskins, L. Isaksen, P. Janssen, R. Jenne, A. Mcnally, J. Mahfouf, J. Morcrette, N. Rayner, R. Saunders, P. Simon, A. Sterl, K. Trenberth, A. Untch, D. Vasiljevic, P. Viterbo, J. Woollen (2005)
The ERA‐40 re‐analysisQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 131
A. Simmons, J. Wallace, G. Branstator (1983)
Barotropic Wave Propagation and Instability, and Atmospheric Teleconnection Patterns.Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 40
J. Wallace, D. Gutzler (1981)
Teleconnections in the Geopotential Height Field during the Northern Hemisphere WinterMonthly Weather Review, 109
G. Gong, D. Entekhabi, J. Cohen, D. Robinson (2004)
Sensitivity of atmospheric response to modeled snow anomaly characteristicsJournal of Geophysical Research, 109
Jianping Li, J. Wang (2003)
A modified zonal index and its physical senseGeophysical Research Letters, 30
Zhiwei Wu, Bin Wang, Jianping Li, F. Jin (2009)
An empirical seasonal prediction model of the east Asian summer monsoon using ENSO and NAOJournal of Geophysical Research, 114
R. Wu, B. Kirtman (2007)
Observed Relationship of Spring and Summer East Asian Rainfall with Winter and Spring Eurasian SnowJournal of Climate, 20
Hai Lin, J. Derome (1997)
On the modification of the high‐ and low‐frequency eddies associated with the PNA anomaly: an observational studyTellus A, 49
A. Shabbar, M. Khandekar (1996)
The impact of el Nino‐Southern oscillation on the temperature field over Canada: Research noteAtmosphere-ocean, 34
Wu Zhiwei, L. Jianping (2008)
Prediction of the Asian-Australian Monsoon Interannual Variations with the Grid-Point Atmospheric Model of IAP LASG (GAMIL)Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 25
N. Rayner, D. Parker, E. Horton, C. Folland, L. Alexander, D. Rowell, Elizabeth Kent, A. Kaplan (2003)
Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth centuryJournal of Geophysical Research, 108
A. Barnston, R. Livezey (1987)
Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patternsMonthly Weather Review, 115
G. Boer, N. McFarlane, R. Laprise, J. Henderson, J. Blanchet (1984)
The Canadian Climate Centre spectral atmospheric general circulation modelAtmosphere-ocean, 22
J. Horel, J. Wallace (1981)
Planetary-Scale Atmospheric Phenomena Associated with the Southern OscillationMonthly Weather Review, 109
Kalnay (1996)
The NCEP/NCAR 40-Year Reanalysis ProjectBull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 77
N. McFarlane, G. Boer, J. Blanchet, M. Lazare (1992)
The Canadian Climate Centre Second-Generation General Circulation Model and Its Equilibrium ClimateJournal of Climate, 5
M. Rodwell, D. Rowell, C. Folland (1999)
Oceanic forcing of the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation and European climateNature, 398
H. Ritchie (1991)
Application of the semi-Lagrangian method to a multilevel spectral primitive-equations modelQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 117
Hai Lin, G. Brunet, J. Derome (2008)
Seasonal Forecasts of Canadian Winter Precipitation by Postprocessing GCM IntegrationsMonthly Weather Review, 136
G. Gong, D. Entekhabi, J. Cohen (2002)
A Large-Ensemble Model Study of the Wintertime AO–NAO and the Role of Interannual Snow PerturbationsJournal of Climate, 15
A. Bamzai, J. Shukla (1999)
Relation between Eurasian Snow Cover, Snow Depth, and the Indian Summer Monsoon: An Observational StudyJournal of Climate, 12
J. Hurrell (1995)
Decadal Trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional Temperatures and PrecipitationScience, 269
J. Hurrell (1996)
Influence of variations in extratropical wintertime teleconnections on northern hemisphere temperatureGeophysical Research Letters, 23
B. Hoskins, M. McIntyre, A. Robertson (2007)
On the use and significance of isentropic potential vorticity mapsQuarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 111
R. Wu, J. Kinter, B. Kirtman (2005)
Discrepancy of interdecadal changes in the Asian region among the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis, objective analyses, and observationsJournal of Climate, 18
M. Hoerling, J. Hurrell, Taiyi Xu, G. Bates, A. Phillips (2004)
Twentieth century North Atlantic climate change. Part II: Understanding the effect of Indian Ocean warmingClimate Dynamics, 23
Predicting surface air temperature ( T ) is a major task of North American (NA) winter seasonal prediction. It has been recognized that variations of the NA winter T ’’s can be associated with El Niñño––Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). This study presents observed evidence that variability in snow cover over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and its adjacent areas in prior autumn (September––November) is significantly correlated with the first principal component (PC1) of the NA winter T ’’s, which features a meridional seesaw pattern over the NA continent. The autumn TP snow cover anomaly can persist into the following winter through a positive feedback between snow cover and the atmosphere. A positive TP snow cover anomaly may induce a negative sea level pressure and geopotential height anomaly over the eastern North Pacific, a positive geopotential height anomaly over Canada, and a negative anomaly over the southeastern United States——a structure very similar to the positive phase of the Pacific––North America (PNA) pattern. This pattern usually favors the occurrence of a warm––north, cold––south winter over the NA continent. When a negative snow cover anomaly occurs, the situation tends to be opposite. Since the autumn TP snow cover shows a weak correlation with ENSO, it provides a new predictability source for NA winter T ’’s. Based on the above results, an empirical model is constructed to predict PC1 using a combination of autumn TP snow cover and other sea surface temperature anomalies related to ENSO and the NAO. Hindcasts and real forecasts are performed for the 1972––2003 and 2004––09 periods, respectively. Both show a promising prediction skill. As far as PC1 is concerned, the empirical model hindcast performs better than the ensemble mean of four dynamical models from the Canadian Meteorological Centre. Particularly, the real forecast of the empirical model exhibits a better performance in predicting the extreme phases of PC1——that is, the extremely warm winter over Canada in 2009/10——should the model include the autumn TP snow cover impacts. Since all these predictors can be readily monitored in real time, this empirical model provides a real-time forecast tool for NA winter climate.
Journal of Climate – American Meteorological Society
Published: Jun 11, 2010
Read and print from thousands of top scholarly journals.
Already have an account? Log in
Bookmark this article. You can see your Bookmarks on your DeepDyve Library.
To save an article, log in first, or sign up for a DeepDyve account if you don’t already have one.
Copy and paste the desired citation format or use the link below to download a file formatted for EndNote
Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
All DeepDyve websites use cookies to improve your online experience. They were placed on your computer when you launched this website. You can change your cookie settings through your browser.