Get 20M+ Full-Text Papers For Less Than $1.50/day. Start a 14-Day Trial for You or Your Team.

Learn More →

The Post Recession Growth Prospects of South East European Economies

The Post Recession Growth Prospects of South East European Economies <jats:sec><jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>This paper starts with a discussion of how the world recession as an external shock influenced the already vulnerable South East European (SEE) economies. All countries except Albania and Kosovo experienced a recession as well as a termination of the foreign debt based heating-up that generated high growth rates after 2000. The paper provides an overview of states' policy responses, with individual countries surveyed in the appendix. We argue that, with the exception of Albania, all SEE economies started with a fiscal expansion, which coincided with elections in which the existing governments were not re-elected. This was followed by public finance crises, fiscal consolidation and more active monetary policy which averted a financial crisis, with only three of these economies turning to the IMF for help. Nevertheless, the cumulative effect was an extended trough. The paper then discusses the recession's impact on growth in terms of three growth projections derived from historical experience and two ad hoc benchmarks. We examine the consequences of returning to a lower post recession growth trajectory and calculate the time required to return to secular growth and achieve chosen benchmarks. The conclusion for both is that convergence time varies from less than a decade to no convergence before 2040, with the exception of Albania.</jats:p> </jats:sec> http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Southeastern Europe Brill

The Post Recession Growth Prospects of South East European Economies

Loading next page...
 
/lp/brill/the-post-recession-growth-prospects-of-south-east-european-economies-m58nVXl7cy

References

References for this paper are not available at this time. We will be adding them shortly, thank you for your patience.

Publisher
Brill
Copyright
© 2010 Koninklijke Brill NV, Leiden, The Netherlands
ISSN
0094-4467
eISSN
1876-3332
DOI
10.1163/187633310X507475
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

<jats:sec><jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:p>This paper starts with a discussion of how the world recession as an external shock influenced the already vulnerable South East European (SEE) economies. All countries except Albania and Kosovo experienced a recession as well as a termination of the foreign debt based heating-up that generated high growth rates after 2000. The paper provides an overview of states' policy responses, with individual countries surveyed in the appendix. We argue that, with the exception of Albania, all SEE economies started with a fiscal expansion, which coincided with elections in which the existing governments were not re-elected. This was followed by public finance crises, fiscal consolidation and more active monetary policy which averted a financial crisis, with only three of these economies turning to the IMF for help. Nevertheless, the cumulative effect was an extended trough. The paper then discusses the recession's impact on growth in terms of three growth projections derived from historical experience and two ad hoc benchmarks. We examine the consequences of returning to a lower post recession growth trajectory and calculate the time required to return to secular growth and achieve chosen benchmarks. The conclusion for both is that convergence time varies from less than a decade to no convergence before 2040, with the exception of Albania.</jats:p> </jats:sec>

Journal

Southeastern EuropeBrill

Published: Jan 1, 2010

Keywords: POST-TRANSFORMATION GROWTH TRAJECTORY; SEE RECESSION POLICY; RECESSION IMPACT ON SEE; REACTION

There are no references for this article.